I Used to be an Optimist.....

But here is what now what I think:

1. The Dow Jones industrial average will fall to 4,500 within the next year.
2. The government budget deficit will top $3 trillion for fiscal 2010 or 20% or GDP since tax collections will drop dramatically and spending will go totally out of control as public officials panic.
3. The stock market will not reach levels that we saw during 2007 during my lifetime.
4. If the stock market market rises to 14,000 again, it will be due to hyper inflation but on a real basis will be significantly below even my 4,500 prediction
5. Inflation will rise but it will be in all Developed nations and there will be nowhere to hide from the destruction.
6. Unemployment will reach 15% but there will be significant underemployment.
7. Within 5 years, there will be a shortage of electricity in the US due to hostile taxes on carbon producing utilities.
8. There will be a serious effort on creating "free states."
9. Europe will be in even worse shape than the US.
10. There will be significant social unrest and deflation of real estate in China as unreported but actual unemployment there rises to 15% also.
11. 50% of the people that paid in social security will not see anything at all back from the ponzi scheme.
12. There will be a significant number of street protests and that the National Guard will be asked to restore order but this will be ineffective.
13. The US Government will repudiate some of the debt.