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Milton J. Madison - An American Refugee Now Living in China, Where Liberty is Ascending

Federalism, Free Markets and the Liberty To Let One's Mind Wander. I Am Very Worried About the Fate of Liberty in the USA, Where Government is Taking people's Lives ____________________________________________________________________________________________ "Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Tolerance in the face of tyranny is no virtue." -Barry Goldwater-

Saturday, October 18, 2008

The Bradley Effect....

From Wikipedia....
The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, is a proposed explanation for an alleged discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in some voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

The theory of the Bradley effect is that the inaccurate polls have been skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.
So, lets be clear, there is no real voting effect. People will vote for who they will vote for for a variety of reasons. Some may not vote for a Black, some may not vote for an old person. Some may prefer a Black or an old person. Some will look at each candidates economic plans and some will look at their social plans. Some will be impressed with the way that a candidate dresses, speaks, walks, eats or even facial features, quirks and a host of other things that may not seem relevant to the job at hand. That is how an electorate makes a decision.

But this canard of the Bradley Effect has already been foisted as a warning to white people. Really, the Bradley effect is a polling problem, just like in 2004 when exit polls had John Kerry beating George W. Bush handily. Its a polling problem when people do not feel compelled to tell pollsters the truth and maybe its just that some of them want to be on their way without conflict. Again, as I wrote below, the threat of violence from the left also may be a contributing factor to people lying in these polls.

Irrespective of who gets elected, white people will be wearing this 'racism' red letter for the rest of our lives. Being born white makes us racists, supposedly. And blacks, who are expected to vote 90% for the Obamamessiah are not? When I was a kid, I grew up in a racially mixed neighborhood. Some of them told me that they hate white people. Someone taught them that and they felt that they were entitled to say these things. I wouldn't waste my time hating black people. I guess that they get a pass and the rest of us do not.

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