Concerns For An Environmental Disaster in the PRC Rising....

These figures from the Standard look a little suspicious to me.

The mainland ranks first in water consumption and sewage discharges, and second in energy consumption and carbon dioxide discharges, said the news agency.

Its total energy consumption is seven times that of Japan, six times that of the United States and 2.8 times that of India.

I did a little research a while back on BTU [British Thermal Unit] consumption per unit of real GDP for fun [Yes, sometimes I am a total geek]. It is a much more enlightening statistic than aggregate consumption that gets so bandied about in the popular press.

The United States in 2001 consumed 10,736 BTU's per unit of GDP down from 12,923 in 1991, a decline of around 17% over that decade. The decline in consumption did not appear cyclical but there was a decline in every year for the period. [I downloaded these figures from the internet a couple of years ago, but I cannot find the site now, so you will have to trust me].

China in 2001 consumed 35,619 BTU's per unit of GDP down from 65,101 in 1991, a decline of around 45% for the decade.

GDP comparison's for 2004 between China and the US are $7.26 trillion PPP [Purchasing Power Parity] vs. $11.75 trillion, respectively.

If we do a simple adjustment using historical approximate rates of decline of energy consumption, we get a figure of 32,000 BTU's per unit of GDP for China [3% annual decline] and 10,400 for the US [1% annual decline]. Adjusting for GDP, China's consumption of energy was 7.26 trillion x 32,000=232.3 quadrillion BTU's and the US consumed 11.75 trillion x 10,400=122.2 quadrillion BTU's.

My above figures are only rough estimates. But they are sufficient for comparison purposes. But, we can conclude that China's actual consumption of energy is a little under 2 times that of the USA but over 3 times of that of the USA per unit of GDP not 6 times as cited by the Standard mentioned earlier.

It is obvious, however, to anyone that has ever traveled to China or lived nearby, as we do in Hong Kong, that the environment in China has deteriorated to an incredible degree. Even when I visited Guangzhou for the first time in 1991, I was struck by the acrid air fouling the public streets particularly during rush hour. I had to return to my hotel room and sit indoors for a while after that incident.

The spectacular growth that China has experienced has come at a cost. And this cost continues to mount and is not figured into any of the national economic accounts as I wrote about here before. The actual growth is lower when you figure in the costs associated with cleaning up the environment, additional health costs and destructive erosion and other problems that will lead to long-term shortages of both arable farmland and other necessary raw materials.

On a more cynical note, the more developed countries have exported their pollution problems to China by moving plants and production to these 3rd world countries where environmental standards are more lax or where officials can be bribed to overlook the more odious problems.