China, Way Over Heating....

The capital will also add an estimated 1 billion square feet of high-end property by 2008, according to Jack Rodman, a partner at Ernst & Young in Beijing.

A billion square feet of office space is around 2 and a half times the amount of office space in New York City. A billion square feet is around 6 miles by 6 miles or almost 10 kilometers by 10 kilometers. Its enough new office space, assuming 150 square feet per employee, for almost 7 million more employees. It is the equivalent of 1,275 IFC #2 office towers. Or the equivalent space to an IFC #2 office building that was 325 miles tall.

Just assume for a moment, if it does all get leased up, that there will have to be housing for 7 million more people, transportation to get them around, restaurants and supermarkets to feed them. 7 million more people is doubling the size of Hong Kong by 2008.

And if they don't lease up this space for new businesses, then what becomes of it? Problem assets for the banks that already have over US$150 billion of bad assets on the books. And a billion square feet of office space is for just one city. Actually I never really understand this whole Beijing office party anyway. Its like if a company decides to set up in the US, they open an office in Washington, DC. What? Do they want to get shot and robbed by ruffians on the street there. Everyone always tells me 'that is where the power is' and all of that hoo-haa. But if that is what doing business in China is all about, then it is arbitrary and silly. Bureaucrats should not be involved. All that they can do is make it more inefficient. White people will have a difficult time making money in China, so get out now.

A not too good assessment for China's prospects here.